Is the Washington, D.C. housing market dealing with a sudden collapse ignited by DOGE’s job-cutting? A whirlwind of social media posts from doubtful figures has sparked hypothesis that a big inflow of stock is hitting the market. May this be a tipping level that sends the D.C. housing scene right into a tailspin? Is there already a crash underway?
Earlier than you bounce to conclusions, let me share a phrase of knowledge: be cautious with these doomsday posts floating round on X. It appears everybody has one thing to say, particularly when it’s sensational!
Let’s dig deeper into dependable information sources and discover out what’s taking place within the D.C. market. Altos Analysis has the recent weekly information to supply the solutions we’d like.
Weekly housing stock information
Let’s first look at the nationwide stock information. This has all the time been a key indicator for housing as we transfer towards normalcy. Though stock ranges will not be but again to common, it’s encouraging to notice that we’re considerably above the all-time low stock stage of 240,497, recorded in March 2022. We skilled a slight enhance in stock final week and we are able to anticipate the everyday spring surge quickly.
- Weekly stock change (Feb. 7-Feb. 14): Stock rose from 632,367 to 637,991
- The identical week final 12 months (Feb. 9-Feb. 16): Stock fell from 494,819 to 493,987
- The all-time stock backside was in 2022 at 240,497
- The stock peak for 2024 was 739,434
- For some context, lively listings for a similar week in 2015 have been 954,581
Now let’s have a look at the DC Metro housing market and see if we are able to see any indicators of the large stock surge that’s trending on social media. Thus far, it seems to be like we’re not seeing it materialize.
The stock within the DC metro housing market isn’t a lot larger than the COVID-19 stock lows. Bear in mind to watch out when listening to individuals who have by no means tracked housing economics. When working from such a low base, stock exploding larger might be straightforward to see, very similar to what we noticed within the 2018 information, so if and when it occurs, we’ll know.
New listings information
The brand new itemizing information from Altos Analysis displays properties that come to the market with out a right away contract, offering us with a real-time view of any promoting stress out there. The final two years have been the 2 lowest new listings information years in historical past.
Final 12 months, I forecasted we’d get a minimum of 80,000 per week through the seasonal peak months, however It didn’t occur. This 12 months, I imagine we must always hit that concentrate on. Notice that through the housing bubble crash years, this information line ran between 250,000-400,000 per week.
The nationwide new itemizing information for final week over the earlier a number of years:
- 2025: 56,559
- 2024: 49,556
- 2023: 42,073
Let’s look at the present state of the D.C. market and up to date itemizing information. It seems fairly regular when in comparison with the previous couple of years. Sadly, evidently these selling vital stock surges lacked the suitable information instruments to trace these tendencies successfully.
Jobless claims have been rising on this space over the previous few weeks and we are able to anticipate an extra enhance as a result of Trump administration’s aim of slashing federal jobs, which some have estimated at 200,000. I prefer to hold issues easy: monitor jobless claims, new itemizing information and lively stock over the following few months and observe the information. Nevertheless, nothing significantly vital has occurred but.
Worth-cut proportion
In a median 12 months, about one-third of all properties usually expertise a worth minimize, which displays the standard dynamics of the housing market. Final 12 months, I had a low forecast, predicting solely 2.33% nominal home-price progress, which ended up being too low.
For 2025, I’m forecasting progress of 1.77%, indicating one other 12 months of adverse actual residence worth progress. As stock will increase and if mortgage charges stay above 7%, worth progress is predicted to chill down. I used to be mistaken final 12 months, partly as a result of mortgage charges fell to six% rapidly. Nevertheless, the slowdown in worth progress is a constructive improvement for the housing market, which desperately wants it.
Worth-cut percentages for final week over the earlier a number of years:
- 2025: 33%
- 2024: 30%
- 2023: 31%
Lastly, let’s look at the worth minimize percentages within the D.C. market. We are able to observe that the proportion of worth cuts is decrease than the nationwide common. This doesn’t imply we received’t see careworn sellers as federal employees lose their jobs within the upcoming weeks, however the latest information doesn’t point out any vital stress out there but.
10-year yield and mortgage charges
In my 2025 forecast, I anticipate the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges might be between 5.75% and seven.25%.
- The ten-year yield will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%.
The ten-year yield was wild final week. The CPI report despatched bond yields rising, and the following day, the PPI inflation report despatched the 10-year yield falling. Friday’s weak retail gross sales report despatched the 10-year yield falling once more, pushing mortgage charges beneath 7%.
Mortgage spreads
The constructive story relating to mortgage charges is the development in mortgage spreads noticed in 2024 and 2025. With out this enchancment, mortgage charges could be shut to eight% in 2025.
Traditionally, these spreads usually vary between 1.60% and 1.80%. If we have been experiencing the worst mortgage spreads of 2023, mortgage charges could be 0.77% larger at this time. Conversely, present mortgage charges could be roughly 0.73% to 0.83% decrease with common mortgage spreads.
Buy software information
Buy software information has been roughly flat this 12 months:
- 2 constructive readings
- 1 flat studying
- 2 adverse studying
Final week, the weekly information was down 2% weekly however up 2% 12 months over 12 months. Traditionally, when mortgage charges are excessive, buy software information tends to replicate adverse tendencies. As an illustration, final 12 months, when mortgage charges ranged between 6.75% and seven.50%, the acquisition software information confirmed 14 adverse, two constructive, and two flat readings.
We’ll monitor the information intently in February and talk about this and different housing financial matters at our huge Housing Financial Summit on Feb. 26 in Dallas.
Weekly pending gross sales
The newest weekly pending contract information from Altos Analysis gives precious insights into present tendencies in housing demand. This dataset has proven a notable enchancment for the reason that summer time of 2024, and towards the tip of the 12 months, it confirmed year-over-year progress.
Nevertheless, as mortgage charges began to rise late into 2024 and keep elevated in 2025, it has facilitated a slight decline in pending gross sales 12 months over 12 months from the place we had been rising. We’re nonetheless displaying larger progress versus 2023 ranges, however not by a lot. Our housing information will get higher when mortgage charges are close to 6%.
Weekly pending contracts for the previous week over the previous a number of years:
- 2025: 303,957
- 2024: 314,053
- 2023: 298,432
The week forward: Housing information and Fed speeches
This week, we now have a number of key housing information releases, together with residence builder confidence, housing begins, and current residence gross sales. On Monday, a number of Federal Reserve Presidents might be talking, and we must always take note of how the markets react to their feedback. On Tuesday, I might be on CNBC to debate builders and tariffs. Moreover, each Thursday, we are able to anticipate jobless claims information to be launched, and this info might change into significantly fascinating quickly as a result of latest layoffs.
Hopefully, this text gives a greater understanding of the housing stock within the DC market.
