In a brand new essay revealed on Monday, Arthur Hayes—famend digital asset investor and former CEO of BitMEX—contends that the crypto market is poised to rally strongly within the first quarter of 2025 earlier than topping out someday in “mid to late March.” Hayes’s newest essay, titled “Sasa,” delves deep into a number of macroeconomic variables, together with US Federal Reserve (Fed) coverage, US Treasury Basic Account (TGA) balances, the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), and political uncertainty in Washington.
Hayes started his essay by setting a vivid scene from Japan’s Hokkaido ski resorts, likening harmful backcountry circumstances brought on by inadequate snow cowl over sharp bamboo grass (sasa) to potential market obstacles that might reduce quick crypto rallies. He observes that 2025 has kicked off amid strong snowfall in Hokkaido—an apt metaphor for what he sees as a liquidity “dumping” that might propel digital asset costs upward. Nonetheless, he warns that the political and monetary atmosphere in america might introduce sudden hazards.
Why March Might Mark The Subsequent Peak For Crypto
“As we start 2025, the query on crypto traders’ minds is whether or not the Trump pump can proceed,” Hayes writes, referencing the preliminary optimism surrounding President Donald Trump’s second time period. Whereas Hayes believes “the excessive expectations for coverage motion out of the Trump camp arrange the marketplace for disappointment,” he maintains that any short-term negativity might be offset by a strong “greenback liquidity impulse.”
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Hayes underscores that the Fed’s RRP has been vital for Bitcoin’s value trajectory. For the reason that third quarter of 2022, the power’s unwinding has correlated positively with crypto and equities costs.
“Bitcoin bottomed in Q3 2022 when the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) reached its zenith,” he explains, noting that US Treasury Secretary Janet “Dangerous Gurl” Yellen facilitated a shift from issuing longer-dated coupon bonds to issuing shorter-dated T-bills. This strategy, he argues, successfully drained greater than $2 trillion from the RRP, injecting liquidity into world markets.
Now, with the RRP falling to nearly zero, the Fed has “belatedly modified the coverage charge of the RRP” to make it much less engaging. Hayes factors out that it nonetheless represents a possible $237 billion injection into markets as soon as the remaining RRP funds transfer into higher-yielding Treasury payments. In the meantime, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) removes $60 billion monthly, totaling $180 billion between January and March. Netting each elements yields a $57 billion injection over the quarter.
One other main focus in Hayes’s thesis is the Treasury Basic Account. As debt ceiling negotiations loom, the Treasury’s incapacity to situation new debt means it might probably solely cowl bills by spending down the TGA—an motion that releases liquidity.
“As a result of the mixture quantity of debt can not rise till the US Congress will increase the debt ceiling, the Treasury can solely spend funds from its checking account, the TGA,” Hayes writes, noting that the steadiness stands at round $722 billion.
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He estimates that with out a debt ceiling decision, the TGA might be exhausted by Could or June. For crypto markets, the crux of the matter is the timescale for a deal in Congress. The essay highlights Trump’s slim majority and the probability that Republicans who place themselves as fiscally conservative won’t grant fast or straightforward consent. Democrats, Hayes provides, are unlikely to facilitate enabling extra spending for a president they oppose—additional fueling legislative brinkmanship.
In accordance with Hayes’s calculations, TGA drawdowns may launch an extra $555 billion from January by means of March. If mixed with the $57 billion internet liquidity from the Fed’s RRP and QT changes, whole greenback liquidity may rise by as a lot as $612 billion within the first quarter.
Hayes zeroes in on March because the vital juncture—when this liquidity surge may start to wane and expectations for brand spanking new federal spending or pro-crypto laws from the Trump administration might not materialize on schedule.
“I consider I answered the query I posed on the outset. That’s, the sasa of a letdown by staff Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business laws could be lined by a particularly optimistic greenback liquidity atmosphere,” he states, earlier than concluding that peak liquidity may subside shortly as soon as the market anticipates the debt ceiling’s decision and the following refilling of the TGA.
From a historic lens, Hayes cites Bitcoin’s value motion in 2024, which peaked in mid-March round $73,000, then drifted sideways and tumbled simply earlier than the April 15 tax deadline. The reasoning, he suggests, is simple: as quickly as TGA spending has run its course, the online optimistic liquidity image reverts to impartial or adverse, leaving threat belongings weak.
Whereas Hayes acknowledges that Chinese language credit score growth, Financial institution of Japan rate of interest insurance policies, and the Trump administration’s potential greenback devaluation technique towards different main currencies or gold may upend his timeline, he trusts that RRP and TGA mechanics are dependable near-term gauges. Crucially, these twin sources of liquidity seem highly effective sufficient to overshadow any disappointment about Trump’s insurance policies till not less than the tip of March.
“None of those main macroeconomic points could be identified a priori, however I’ve confidence within the math behind how the RRP and TGA balances will change over time,” he says, underscoring that the surging crypto and inventory markets since late 2022 align with the large drain within the RRP.
Hayes concludes by suggesting that, traditionally, markets usually present vital promoting alternatives within the first quarter. By springtime, traders may need to take earnings and “chill on the seaside” whereas ready for improved liquidity circumstances to re-emerge within the second half of the yr. “Proper on schedule, similar to nearly each different yr, it will likely be time to promote within the late phases of the primary quarter,” Hayes concludes.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $101,344.
Featured picture from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
