Sturtevant, the chief economist at Vivid MLS — which serves actual property professionals from New Jersey to Virginia — mentioned she has observed a current uptick in itemizing exercise in exurban markets. This might tie into staff being required to return to the workplace extra frequently, making longer commutes much less fascinating or possible.
“These markets which might be 50, 60 or 70 miles away from the town middle are seeing extra itemizing exercise,” Sturtevant mentioned. “Conversely, we’re seeing much more exhibiting exercise — that’s, folks requesting to see houses — and new pending exercise within the first-tier suburbs which might be nearer to commuting and nearer to jobs. That could be a flip from what we had been seeing the previous few years.”
Lautz, the deputy chief economist on the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors (NAR), has seen related traits in her personal analysis.
“We did a nationwide survey and we truly requested of us, ‘What are you searching for in a home?’” Lautz mentioned. “And residential workplace was the least most sought-after characteristic. Once we requested, ‘What are you searching for in a neighborhood?’, proximity to job and commuting was a very powerful issue individuals are searching for.”
However the want to be near work remains to be not what it as soon as was for owners and potential patrons. Lautz mentioned {that a} decade in the past, roughly half of customers ranked distance to work as essential, in comparison with simply one-third of them in 2024.
“It has dropped off, however I believe this rebound we’re seeing goes to have some attention-grabbing results,” Lautz mentioned.
Among the many results that may affect customers are issues like the prices of commuting and baby care.
“A pal of mine now has to commute, and he pays $550 a month to commute,” Sturtevant mentioned. “That’s $550 a month he might be placing towards a home that’s now going towards one thing else.”
The identical goes for baby care prices, particularly for working dad and mom who had been in a position to handle baby care on their very own when working from dwelling. Returning to the workplace possible means they’re unable to ferry kids to after-school actions or take care of younger toddlers.
“We’re seeing this all-time low of first-time patrons within the knowledge,” Lautz mentioned. “One of many large causes is not only their pupil mortgage debt and excessive rents — it’s additionally baby care prices, as a result of they’re a median age of 38 years outdated. So, they’re extra more likely to have these baby care prices than earlier generations of first-time patrons.”
As Sturtevant famous, prices like commuting and baby care can rapidly add up, impacting customers’ budgets and their capability to buy a house.
Whereas the rising age of first-time patrons has impacted their baby care considerations, it has additionally impacted the kinds of houses these patrons need to buy.
“They aren’t searching for that one-bedroom apartment,” Sturtevant mentioned. “They’re a bit extra established.”
Sturtevant mentioned that the information backs this assertion. Whereas general stock remains to be down in comparison with its pre-pandemic ranges, condominium stock is definitely up in comparison with 2019, which is one thing she is maintaining a tally of this yr.
“These first-time patrons don’t need the entry-level starter apartment. They need the dream home,” Sturtevant mentioned, “However these apartment sellers are extra keen to make concessions, and there are extra choices on the apartment facet of issues, so we’ll be watching how that performs out in 2025 and if a few of these first-time patrons are keen to compromise on what their dream home could seem like.”
Though the housing market could also be off to a sluggish begin in 2025 — due partially to stubbornly excessive mortgage charges — economists are assured that the life occasions that usually drive dwelling gross sales and purchases will proceed to be a driving power. Sturtevant believes that many of those life occasions will result in an uptick in listings.
“Despite the fact that of us have a sub-3% mortgage, I believe these ‘life occurs’ occasions that immediate folks to promote their dwelling are going to kick in,” she mentioned. “In case you reside in a two-bedroom dwelling and also you simply had your third child, it doesn’t matter you probably have a 2.65% mortgage, proper? You need out.”
Whereas a lot of these sellers add to the accessible stock, in addition they often return to the homebuyer pool.
“What we actually want is for folks to promote their rental properties or their second houses,” Sturtevant mentioned.
And though these traits will definitely have an effect on the housing market, different issues reminiscent of authorities deregulation and tariffs have the potential to additional shake issues up in surprising methods.
“I believe it’s only a large query mark,” Lautz mentioned. “I haven’t been on my cellphone within the final 5 minutes to see the most recent information. I believe all of us can agree that it is a very uncommon atmosphere.
“The housing market has been stalled for the final couple of years. We have been on a rebound towards the top of the yr, we had numerous momentum, so I believe we actually have to attend and see on numerous issues, like tariffs, what the affect will likely be.”
