I’ve a rule for selecting rematches in the case of soccer: the second time two groups play, I usually choose the crew that didn’t win the primary time to win the second time.
Nevertheless, with the rematches this week within the NFL playoffs, I discover myself breaking that rule, particularly with Chiefs-Texans. Regardless of Houston’s protection wanting just like the second coming of the 2000 Ravens of their wildcard victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, I can’t choose in opposition to QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs.
Listed below are three explanation why the Chiefs will beat the Texans and transfer on to the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs are getting wholesome as Houston wears down
The harm report for the Texans this week is…not nice.
The names on there for Houston that I’m actually nervous about are RB Joe Mixon and LB Azeez Al-Shaiir. Al-Shaiir missed the primary sport in opposition to the Chiefs the place Kansas Metropolis constantly attacked the aggressive nature of Houston’s linebackers. Not having their QB in the midst of the protection goes to deliver everybody else up on the depth chart, placing the benefit in Kansas Metropolis’s favor. Mixon is huge if he can’t play. With the entire offensive ineptitude that Houston has gone by way of this 12 months, Mixon has given them some physicality within the backfield and saved that offense on schedule of their Wild Card win. Enjoying with out a credible risk within the backfield and an offensive line that may get holes poked in them is a recipe for catastrophe.
On the flip aspect, Kansas Metropolis is getting wholesome. DT Chris Jones is taking part in, as is WR Hollywood Brown. On prime of that, including CB Jaylen Watson again to the secondary room permits them to be extra versatile and DC Steve Spagnuolo can combine up his matchups on WR Nico Collins. Kansas Metropolis is loading up for one more deep playoff run, and by getting wholesome on the proper time, they trigger main issues for Houston.
Kansas Metropolis’s hyper-West Coast offense has gotten the very best of Demeco Ryans
In earlier matchups with Demeco Ryans’ defenses, the Chiefs have gotten the very best of them by utilizing movement and misdirection to simply pepper the uber-aggressive protection with jabs till Mahomes can hit a haymaker. The Chiefs’ hyper-West Coast offense is constructed to make use of movement to create leverage and disruption by way of stacks and bunches, which is able to give them as a lot area wanted to stretch this protection horizontally. Of their final matchup, QB Patrick Mahomes had a blistering 0.3 EPA per play and 53.1% Success Fee, regardless of solely having a 5.7 aDOT. He was selecting the Texans’ protection aside beneath, and it doesn’t bode properly for Houston.
Huge Recreation Spags
Let’s get again to the Spags portion of this. The Chiefs’ protection has at all times turned it up come playoff time, and their defensive coordinator follows swimsuit. Spagnuolo at all times appears to avoid wasting his finest work for the playoffs, constantly dragging the highest offenses into the muck. I’m nervous for the Texans about this model of matchup the place they get dragged right into a ball management sport, as a result of they won’t rating sufficient factors. Along with the large sport coordinator, the Chiefs have the very best massive sport defender within the sport proper now in DT Chris Jones. Since 2022, Jones has 22 mixed pressures, 2.5 sacks and a bevy of lanes opened up for different cross rushers on the crew. When Jones is wholesome and the calendar turns to January, he turns up his play. In opposition to a Texans inside that has been hit and miss, that might be what helps Kansas Metropolis get the win.
